When Bubbles Burst: Surviving the Financial Fallout

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They might decline somewhat to adjust to rising interest rates. But nothing justifies an uncontrolled plunge. The argument is likely to continue -- regardless of what actually happens to the price of homes -- because the argument doesn't really have much to do with housing prices. It is about fundamentally different views of how markets operate. Housing prices have indeed soared. Stoked by some of the lowest interest rates in history, home prices in Los Angeles rose 18 percent in the last year.

In Miami, they jumped 14 percent. But do these amount to bubbles? Robert Shiller, the famed Yale economist and bubble-ologist who predicted the end of the dot-com stock boom in his book ''Irrational Exuberance,'' argues that they do. He explains that bubbles are created when the prices of assets are fueled by psychological rather than economic considerations.

From apartments in New York to tulips in 17th-century Holland, a bubble is born when people lose sight of the fundamental value of an asset and are willing to pay whatever it takes because they see that prices have risen like crazy and assume they will continue to do so.

Shiller says. After all, he says, bubbles always pop. Like a Ponzi scheme, a bubble will survive only as long as the herd believes in ever-rising prices. If something pricks this faith, if no next buyer is willing to pay more, the herd will run and the bubble will deflate catastrophically. Take the stock market.

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How to Survive a Bubble

Then the herd turned around. By mid, tech stocks had fallen back by 70 percent. But despite these dramatic upheavals, not everybody is convinced that bubbles even exist. Peter Garber, a global strategist at Deutsche Bank, believes that psychological explanations like herd behavior are a deus ex machina invoked by economists who do not properly understand the economic underpinnings of the market.

When Bubbles Burst: Surviving the Financial Fallout

Garber argues that from the Dutch tulip craze to the stock market boom of a few years ago, soaring prices have been justified by economic fundamentals -- be it the earning potential of rare tulips or stocks. Some of the arguments backing the tech boom ultimately proved to be flawed, he acknowledges, but the analysis holding stock prices up -- that productivity had reached a new level and companies would be able to capture this in higher profits -- was reasonable. When stock prices fell, it was because of changes in this underlying business landscape.

Another bubble-skeptic is Kevin Hassett, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute and co-author of the fabled ''Dow 36,,'' which was published in when the Dow Jones index was around 11, Used- Good: The book will be clean without any major stains or markings,the spine of the book will be in great shape meaning the book still has a lot of life in it, no pages will be missing, the pages may be slightly folded through previous use but not majorly.

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Robert Shiller on Housing and Bubbles

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When Bubbles Burst: Surviving the Financial Fallout - John P. Calverley - Google Books

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